← CoreTCG Abyssal Heaven Regional Championship
Water Dawn of AshesTier 2
at CoreTCG Abyssal Heaven Regional Championship
decks
1
(1.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
7
3-3-1
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
52.9%
avg ELO +1.4 per match
expected value
51.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1206
· median 1206
· range 1206–1206
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1005
Q1 1171
Q3 1339
1562
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 14.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 12.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 5.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.2% | -17.3 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.9% | +13.4 |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.7% | +2.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Byakko | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Dawn of Ashes | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia Jin | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.3% | -13.9 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.2% | -2.9 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 1.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.3% | +14.8 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Dawn of Ashes decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
